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Shanghai Land land management development countermeasures Pudong district Effect of land finance on economic growth based on regional differences A research using the panel threshold effect model YANG Li MA Aihui TANG Peng School of Public Administration Sichuan University Sichuan Chengdu 610065 China Abstract UOwing to the pressure of fiscal balance and political incentives challenges such as the abnormal supply structure of public goods and the lag of industrial structure upgrading caused by the land financial target have become severe and they negatively affect economic growth This study empirically analyzed the effect of land finance on economic growth under the threshold of public goods and industrial structure based on the panel data of 282 prefecture level cities from 2004 to 2017 and further verified the regional differences in the threshold effect The results showed the following 1 the influence coefficient of land finance on economic growth dropped by 0 004 and 0 007 after crossing the second threshold of public goods and industrial structure and 2 the influence coefficient of land finance on economic growth in the eastern and central regions is generally much lower than that in the western regions when the second threshold is crossed Therefore it is concluded that land finance has an evident threshold effect on economic growth especially in the eastern and central regions and the specific influencing paths include repeated construction of public infrastructure disorderly expansion of real estate and low end manufacturing This study presents some policy suggestions such as improving people s livelihood indicators in an official assessment expanding the energy saving and environmental protection industry land supply and strengthening infrastructure construction in western regions Key words land finance public goods industrial structure economic growth threshold model 上接第53页
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